« 元クラーク空軍基地訪問 | Main | 民主党の二酸化炭素削減政策賛成 »

September 27, 2009

「核兵器のない世界」とは

核兵器のない世界は兵器の無い、非武装、非暴力の平和の世界ではない。核兵器のない世界は現在の世界と変わりの無い通常兵器のあふれた、暴力の蔓延した世界である。なぜならヒロシマ、ナガサキで使用されて以来、核兵器は60年以上にわたって使われてこなかったし、今後も使われる蓋然性はきわめて低い。核兵器が使用される恐怖はあったが、現実には核兵器が使われたわけではなかったのである。つまり、事実上の核兵器のない世界だったのだ。
 その一方で通常兵器は、第1次、第2次世界大戦の時に比べても、大量に使用されてきた。その結果、通常兵器で殺傷された人々の数は核兵器で殺傷された人々の数をはるかに多い。たとえばカラシニコフは「草の根の核兵器」と呼ばれるほどに何千万もの人々を殺傷してきた。現在世界各地で人々を殺傷しているのは通常兵器であって核兵器ではない。だから将来核兵器のない世界がきたとしても、それは通常兵器のない世界でもないし、むしろ核兵器に代わるあらたな通常兵器が登場する世界となるかもしれない。
 オバマ政権がなぜ、今核兵器のない世界を世界に向けアピールするのか。
 第1に政治的な背景。医療改革で国内世論の激しい反対に会い、支持率を急速に下げていること。国内での人気の低下を外交で取り戻そうという狙いがあるように思われる。アメリカで医療改革は一種のタブーのような政策だ。クリントンも第1期に医療改革に取り組んだことがあるが、結局失敗した。
 第2に軍事的な理由。最大の理由は核兵器の軍事的有用性が著しく低下したことにある。
核兵器はもともと軍事的兵器というよりも政治的兵器である。戦術的兵器というよりも戦略的兵器である。その意味は戦場で使用する通常兵器ではなく、政治的影響力を行使するために外交で使用する政治兵器である。破壊力を政治力に変換してはじめて核兵器は有効性を発揮できる。一旦使用すれば、単に大量破壊を招くだけで、政治力に変えることはできない。
 冷戦時代には米ソ対立の中で核兵器は相互抑止力を担う軍事的兵器として、また国際秩序を形成する政治的兵器として大いに役にたってきた。しかし、冷戦が終焉した現在、核兵器は相互抑止のための軍事的兵器としての役割は著しく低下している。また国際秩序を形成する政治的兵器としての役割も低下している。米中間の経済関係をみてもわかるように、世界各国間の経済的相互依存関係の深化にともない主に経済力が世界秩序を形成するようになっている。
 大国の核兵器の軍事的、政治的有用性が著しく低下している反面、発展途上国の核兵器の政治的有用性が高まる傾向にある。核兵器の軍事力を政治力に変換し、その政治力で経済力を高めるという核兵器の軍事から経済への代替可能性(fungibility)が著しく高まっているのである。典型が北朝鮮である。核兵器を開発し、それを政治力として、米中日韓などに経済援助を迫る。現在、イランが北朝鮮を真似している。またビルマも北朝鮮の後を追いかけようと、北朝鮮との関係を深めているといわれる。
 核大国とりわけアメリカとしては今のうちに発展途上国への核拡散を防止しなければ、将来的に現在の北朝鮮のような問題をいくつも抱え込むことになる。かつて国際政治学者モートン・カプランが「単位拒否体系」として予想した、世界中に核兵器が拡散しだれも世界を統治することができない恐怖の世界になってしまう。
 さらに深刻なのは、核兵器がテロ組織にわたることである。数年前にキッシンジャーはじめ冷戦時代に核戦略を唱導していた戦略家たちが核兵器の廃棄を提唱したことがある。その最大の理由がテロ組織に核兵器がわたることの恐怖にあった。アルカイダに核兵器がわたったら9.11同時多発テロの被害ではすまない。抑止力のきかないテロ組織に核兵器をわたさないよう核兵器を廃棄し、また核兵器の原材料、技術も徹底して管理することが結果的には国家安全保障に最も有効という論理である。
 米国はじめ現在の核大国が核管理を担えば、仮に核兵器を全廃しても万一の場合には再び核兵器を生産できる。かつて徳川幕府が鉄砲と火薬の原料となる硝石の製造を厳重に管理して、諸藩の謀叛を防いだ。同様に、現在の核大国が維持管理費のかかる現有核兵器を廃棄した上で、プルトニウム、ウラニウム等の原材料の製造、保有や核兵器技術を厳重に管理するのだ。そうすればハードウェアーとしての核兵器は廃棄するものの、ソフトウェアーとしての核兵器を保有していくことができる。
 また最先端の通常兵器であるRMA兵器が最も進んでいる米国にとって核兵器を世界から全廃すれば通常兵器では圧倒的な軍事的優位を保つことができる。なにしろ世界の軍事費の半分近くを米国が使用しており、第2位以下20位くらいまでの国家の軍事費の総計とほぼ同じである。第2位の中国でさえ世界の軍事費の8パーセント程度である。核兵器では米中ロは対等だが通常兵器では米国が断トツの軍事力を誇っている。核兵器の全廃は米国が圧倒的な軍事力を保有し、米国による世界の軍事的支配を強化することにつながる。
 うがった見方かもしれないが、オバマ政権が核兵器全廃を提唱するのは上記のような背景があると考えられる。決して理想主義的な思いから核兵器全廃を主張しているのではないだろう。
 では日本はオバマの核兵器全廃構想にどう対処すべきか。鳩山首相は日本が核兵器を保有する能力はあるが、非核三原則を堅持することをあらためて世界に言明した。日本が核兵器を造り、保有する必要はない。「つくらず」、「持たず」はしっかりと守った上で、しかし、核兵器の作り方は知っておくことである。すなわち技術というソフトウェアーとしての核兵器を保有するのである。核兵器の製造方法を知っておくことは非核三原則に抵触しない。
 現在の核兵器保有国が現有の核兵器を全廃すれば、核兵器技術を保有する潜在的核兵器保有国となる。その時に日本も核兵器製造の技術を獲得していれば核兵器技術を保有する潜在的核保有国として他の潜在的核保有国と同等の政治的影響力をもつことができる。
 鳩山首相は核兵器の技術獲得を目指すべきでないか。二酸化炭素25パーセント削減の技術力が期待できる日本の産業界ならもはやローテクの核兵器技術など容易に獲得できるだろう。それが現在の北朝鮮への核抑止にもつながり、また核兵器全廃の世界において政治的影響力を確保できる国家戦略となるだろう。

|

« 元クラーク空軍基地訪問 | Main | 民主党の二酸化炭素削減政策賛成 »

Comments

Deer Hunter 2014 Cheats You can raise your current. Glu Credits, Hunter Buck together with sum you choose. A person only have to download tool deer hunter 2014 cheats - Hacks and do not have to have just about any exprience.. deer hunter 2014 cheats will help to suit your needs create many quantity Glu Credits, Hunter Bucks along with simply a press your own mouse. It really is uncomplicated with your instrument.

Posted by: Deer Hunter 2014 Cheats | January 05, 2014 at 12:42 PM

Deer Hunter 2014 Hack http://tutorialfans.com/deer-hunter-2014-cheats-hack-newest-updated-december-2013/ It is possible to boost the. Glu Credits, Hunter Buck together with quantity you would like. A person only need to download tool deer hunter 2014 cheats - Hacks and will need any exprience.. deer hunter 2014 cheats might help to suit your needs crank out a great number of amount Glu Credits, Hunter Bucks with merely a press your own sensitive mouse. It is really uncomplicated with the software.

Posted by: Deer Hunter 2014 Hack | January 08, 2014 at 05:36 PM

Verry good info. Lucky mme I ran across your website bby chance (stumbleupon). I have book marked it for later!

Posted by: Hay Day Hack | January 23, 2014 at 05:04 AM

As a newbie in affiliate marketing, it is easy to get confused by the powerful marketing strategies of the newest and best training tools. A walk through checklist to help you beat your competitors. Being innovative, unique, original, the first in marketing is just about as important in marketing as it is in business and life in general.

Posted by: Is affiliate marketing illegal | February 12, 2014 at 04:51 PM

Plerasе let me know if you're looking fοr a wгiter for your site. Youu havee some really great posts and I believe I would be a gooԀ asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I'd love to write ѕome articles for your blog iո exchange for a link back to mine. Please seոd me an e-mail if іnterested. Many thanks!

Posted by: acai berry 900 | February 16, 2014 at 08:29 PM

Thɑnks for some other excellent article. Where else cօuld anybody get that kind of informɑtion iո such a perfect method of writing? I've a pгesentation subsеquent week, and I'm on the ѕearch for such infߋrmation.

Posted by: double a standard and poors | February 17, 2014 at 10:31 PM

Ԍreat weblog right here! Also yoսг sitе a lot up fast! What web host are you using? Can I get your associate link in your host? I desire my weЬ site loaded up as fast aѕ yours lol

Posted by: tenant verification form mumbai | February 21, 2014 at 08:28 PM

I belіeve what you composed made a great deal of sense. But, what about this? suppose ƴou weгe to create a awesome headline? I ain't suggesting yߋur information isn't ѕolid., but what if you added a post title that makes people want more? I mean 「核兵器のない世界」とは: 加藤朗の目黒短信 is a little plain. You might glance at Yahoo's home page and see how they creɑte article titles to get peoplе to click. You might add a related vidеo or a pic or two to grab people interested about what you've wгitten. Just my opinion, it might briոg your postѕ a little livelier.

Posted by: rentercreditchecks.org | February 22, 2014 at 07:38 AM

The casino is merely the temple for that idol and something many people with serious religious convictions oppose vehemently. Let's start with the outer harbor's western shores, a bold, pink granite area studded with submerged boulder fields that slant down towards submerged ledges and rock-strewn mudflats. This app is not only free but also one of the most popular fitness tools online.

Posted by: Mass Traffic | February 27, 2014 at 07:42 PM

I like it when folks get together and share ideas. Great blog, stick with it!

Posted by: download | March 09, 2014 at 09:02 PM

Then tap on Add Source and it'll give you a message about piracy. Furthermore, open source software for online learning has the capability to accelerate research, enrich education, and share the learning of the rich with the poor and the poor with the rich. This is what you will upload to your device or to the Android and Amazon App Markets.

Posted by: cracked softwares | March 17, 2014 at 07:49 AM

Ԍirls do not like ɡuys who bug them ԝith continuous mobile phone phone calls. Another dilеmma place is the time issue. In reality, she's already working oո her album in in between her GG tasks. http://www.doublex1090sandiego.com/book-sizzling-impartial-mumbai-escorts-now/

Posted by: Miami escorts | March 22, 2014 at 05:07 AM

All that's needed is a good, friendly attitude, and the more experienced Play - Dates will take new ones under their wing. " It's also important to be a motivated entrepreneur with business-savvy to become successful. Discussing different points of view instead of engaging in heated arguments will add stability to the relationship in the long run.

Posted by: blogspot.com | March 28, 2014 at 08:15 PM

Your subject will partly decide what light will be available. Then as things progressed, we started to get a bad feeling. You may reminisce at them to view what has worked and what hasn't, not merely the most important winners.

Posted by: How To Take Professional Pictures | March 29, 2014 at 07:57 AM

I am truly thankful to the holder of this web page who has shared this enormous paragraph at at this time.

Posted by: Internet Traffic Formula Bonus | March 31, 2014 at 04:30 PM

Yahoߋ! is another search motor that is popular. SEO also refers to optikizing your weblog for lookup engine crawling. Admissiоn is $8 for each adult, $5 for seniors and chilfren 6-12 years οf age. http://www.eastsacinfo.com/?p=158864

Posted by: Seo Dashboard | April 03, 2014 at 01:59 AM

Ңi to evfery body, it's my first pay a quick visit of this webloց; this blog includes awesome and truly fine material in sipport of visitors.

Posted by: http://219.224.17.62:8010/node/2910 | April 16, 2014 at 09:57 AM

of course like your website however you need to take a look at the spelling on several of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling problems and I in finding it very troublesome to inform the reality then again I'll certainly come again again.

Posted by: Minimize Risk for Impotence | May 30, 2014 at 12:46 AM

I hardly comment, however i did a few searching and wound up here 「核兵器のない世界」とは: 加藤朗の目黒短信. And I do have 2 questions for you if you do not mind. Could it be only me or does it give the impression like some of the responses come across like coming from brain dead visitors? :-P And, if you are writing on additional online social sites, I'd like to keep up with anything new you have to post. Could you make a list of all of all your shared sites like your linkedin profile, Facebook page or twitter feed?

Posted by: Boost Your Google Rankings | June 03, 2014 at 09:55 PM

Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with a few pics to drive the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is great blog. A fantastic read. I will certainly be back.

Posted by: mortal kombat x beta keys | June 07, 2014 at 04:45 AM

If your arm requires surgery, your surgeon will need to make a number of critical decisions. Medication in this regard sometime goes in vain, as when you stop medicine the pain returns back. However, research has mostly failed to find the tendon inflammation that defines tendinitis.

Posted by: tennis elbow | June 18, 2014 at 07:06 AM

She may want to remain at friends home or interact in following college actions rather of going home. ThI n Successfully hl u Fight ff Bacterial infections nd restore peace t u vagInal area.

Posted by: free std testing orange county | June 26, 2014 at 08:58 PM

I've been exploring for a little for any high quality articles or blog posts on this sort of space . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this website. Studying this info So i'm happy to express that I've a very just right uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I such a lot indubitably will make certain to do not fail to remember this website and provides it a glance regularly.

Posted by: planet minecraft | July 25, 2014 at 01:14 PM

Hi! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I'm getting tired of Wordpress because I've had problems with hackers and I'm looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

Posted by: reklamy | July 26, 2014 at 03:57 AM

To push things further, the tool can also be used to create random patterns with the trees, soil and other resources found in the game. Server features: - Lifts: - Right click on the carry signal to have it. A lot of players often ignore the importance of gold in the game mainly because it is also very hard to find like diamonds, but it has less uses.

Posted by: kathrynelliott.com.au | January 20, 2015 at 11:23 AM

Hey theгe ԝould you mind sharing which ƅlog platform you're working with? I'm planning to start my own blog in the near futuгe but I'm having a tough time chposing between ВlogΕngine/Wordpress/Β2eѵolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layoսt seems different then most blogs and I'm looking for something unique. P.S Soггy for being off-topic bսt I had to ask!

Posted by: soundcloud plays | March 17, 2015 at 06:32 PM

A theme can also alter the behind-the-scenes options to make Word - Press even easier to customize and use. Start by listing the key pieces of the project work. While fixing cross-browser compatibility issues in HTML could bring you to tears, Word - Press development team has already done the task for you.

Posted by: online marketing in hardwick | March 18, 2015 at 08:37 AM

Legitimate 01/04/2014 - 01/31/2016.

Posted by: Buy Jewellery | March 29, 2015 at 10:13 AM

This page really has all the information and facts I needed about this subject and didn't know who to ask.

Posted by: infertility cure diet recommendations | April 09, 2015 at 05:42 AM

Ϝoг example, when the primary use of youг car or truck iis ɑlways tо support уour small business, yоu shoսld think about insurance and any payments mɑybe you ɦave aгound tҺe vehicle. The first kind of promotional strategy tɦat may be examined iѕ search reѕults advertising. That's the best աay to confuse ʏoսr website visitors ɑnd makе it tough for them to locate infоrmation.

Posted by: Pedro | May 17, 2015 at 07:58 PM

Spot on with this write-up, I actually think this amazing site needs a great deal more attention. I'll probably be back again to see more, thanks for the information!

Posted by: smart detox | July 17, 2015 at 07:52 PM

Greetings! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I'm getting sick and tired of Wordpress because I've had issues with hackers and I'm looking at options for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

Posted by: Cheats For Dominations | July 19, 2015 at 05:37 PM

Definitely believe that that you said. Your favorite justification appeared to be at the internet the easiest thing to consider of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed whilst other people consider issues that they just do not realize about. You managed to hit the nail upon the highest and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , other people could take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thank you

Posted by: Cheats For Dominations | July 20, 2015 at 01:04 AM

Goood ԝay оff explaining, and pleasant article tߋ takе fɑcts rеgarding myy presentation subject, whidh і amm gοing to deliver in college.

Posted by: http://pathswitch7.centerblog.net/ | August 31, 2015 at 12:12 AM

Hi there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came tto give it a look. I'm definitely enjoying the information. I'm bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Outstanding blog and terrific design.

Posted by: www.mbafakhro.com | October 05, 2015 at 11:59 AM

Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

Posted by: homemade quest bars cookies | October 19, 2015 at 06:11 AM

For most up-to-date information you have to visit web and on internet I found ths web page as a finest siite for latest updates.

Posted by: simpson hangers | October 26, 2015 at 07:45 PM

Post a comment



(Not displayed with comment.)




TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://app.cocolog-nifty.com/t/trackback/95741/46323990

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 「核兵器のない世界」とは:

« 元クラーク空軍基地訪問 | Main | 民主党の二酸化炭素削減政策賛成 »