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October 13, 2012

今こそ和平演変戦略で中国の民主化を 

 日本政府は尖閣問題に対する対中戦略を間違ってはいけない。軍事力で対抗するよりよりも、今こそ中国の民主化を支援し和平演変により第二の天安門事件を起こし、中国共産党独裁政権を内部から打倒することが何よりも有効な対中戦略である。
尖閣諸島の領海警備の強化は当然としても、それ以上に防衛費を倍増し南西諸島防衛を強化するなどの防衛力増強による対中戦略は必ずしも上策ではない。こうしたハード・パワーによる対中戦略をとれば日本は中国との際限のない軍拡競争の泥沼に陥りかねない。他方、和平演変戦略を日本がとっても、中国は対抗のしようがない。和平演変戦略とはソフト・パワーによる中国民主化戦略である。かつて吉田茂は経済協力を通じた中国の民主化を夢見たが、経済ではなく文化を通じた中国民主化戦略である。具体的には、自由と民主主義の素晴らしさを中国人民とりわけ反日教育を受けた若い世代に伝えることである。それは流行の服や化粧、ブランド品、漫画、小説、アニメ、映画など民主主義社会が生み出したありとありあらゆる文化を通じて根気よく粘り強く中国の人々に自由の素晴らしさ、民主主義社会の精神的豊かさを伝え、共産党独裁体制が自由や人権を抑圧する体制であることを彼らに知ってもらうのである。仮に、その文化が必ずしも日本のものでなくてもかまわない。自由と民主主義を重んじる国ならアメリカでもヨーロッパでも構わない。
幸いなことに、反日政策で日本への訪問者が減ったとしても、中国は留学生や観光客を欧米など世界中に送り出している。海外で自由の素晴らしさを体得した中国人が増えれば増えるほど、思想言論行動の自由を弾圧し、独裁体制につきものの官僚の腐敗にまみれた中国共産党に対する反発が強まるであろう。また国内でいくら言論を統制しようとしても、完璧に統制することはできない。中国はかつてのソ連ほどには情報統制をしていないが、ソ連のグラスノスチが最終的にはソ連崩壊をもたらしたように、ネットの発達した現在では、スマートフォンの普及で一気に情報統制が損なわれるだろう。
現在の中国の最大の弱点は、国家のアイデンティティが失われたことである。だからこそ文化を通じた和平演変戦略が有効なのだ。毛沢東時代には、その評価はさておき、明確なナショナル・アイデンティティとしての共産主義、正確には毛沢東主義があった。毛沢東主義も共産主義も弊履のごとくかなぐり捨てた今の中国に一体何が残ったのだろう。欲望にまみれた拝金主義と官庁腐敗の蔓延する単なる独裁体制だけが残ったのではないか。国連での「盗み取った」発言、IMF 総会への欠席など、経済力と軍事力さえあれば世界は自分たちの思うとおりになるとの現政権の振る舞いは、中国の長い歴史や伝統、文化を損ない、経済力と軍事力以外に国家のアイデンティティを見いだせない現政権の弱点を露呈させてしまった。
眠れる獅子、死せる鯨と呼ばれた中国は、かつてイギリスがそう呼ばれたように、今や「世界の工場」と言われるまでになった、労働者の低賃金と消費市場の巨大さを狙って世界中の工場、会社が進出している。それは、考えてみれば、中国人労働者が低賃金で働かされ、中国の赤い資本家も含めて世界中の資本家から搾取されているのに等しい。百円ショップやユニクロに行ってメード・イン・チャイナの製品を見ると、いったいいくらの労賃が払われたのだろうと思い胸が痛む。見方によっては今の中国は、約100年前に日本も含め欧米列強の食い物になった清朝末期の「死せる鯨」の時代のようだ。当時、国民の貧富の格差は開くばかりか絶対的貧困に多くの農民はあえいでいた。官僚は腐敗し、労働者は買弁資本家や外国資本には搾取される。そして三一運動や五四運動のような反日民族運動が激化し日貨排斥運動が起きたことまで現在の反日暴動とそっくりである。
ならば徹底的に中国政府の反日政策を利用してはどうか。中国民衆の反日運動は、過去そうであったように体制転覆の引き金となる。かつては五四運動を契機に中国国民党や中国共産党が基盤を固め、軍閥を打倒していった。中国共産党は誕生まもない頃の反日ナショナリズムの手法を持ち出して権力を固めようとしている。しかし現代の中国共産党は毛沢東主義も共産主義もかなぐり捨て、金と力だけを武器に民衆を支配しようとした昔の軍閥と変わらない。現代の反日暴動の矛先は必ずや現代の軍閥、中国共産党に向けられるだろう。そして100年前の中国国民が夢見た自由と民主主義の国家が誕生するだろう。中国国民を解放するためにも、日本の対中戦略は文化を通じて中国の民主化を支援する和平演変戦略をとるべきなのである。

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鋭い洞察力にただただ脱帽のみ!
日本はこの戦略を実行できれば、自分を痛めず、共産中国を滅亡させる一石二鳥!
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