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May 25, 2014

朝鮮有事の際、日米安保は発動されるのか?

朝鮮戦争は国際法上、韓国・国連軍(事実上米軍)対北朝鮮・中国(義勇兵が参戦したという名目なので国家としては参戦していない)戦争である。現在の休戦協定は国連軍、北朝鮮、中国の三者(いずれも現地軍司令官が署名)によって結ばれている。韓国は反対したために休戦協定に調印していない。
 安倍政権が想定している朝鮮有事は、北朝鮮が韓国に武力攻撃を仕掛けた場合であろう。この時休戦協定は事実上破棄され、米軍、韓国軍が反撃することになる。問題は米軍が国連軍として国連旗の下で行動するのか、それとも米韓相互援助条約に基づいて星条旗の下で行動するのか。いずれであれ軍事的には米軍が行動することになるが、国際法上米軍の行動が国連決議によって正当化されるのか米韓相互援助条約で正当化されるのか、必ずしも判然としない。
 日本から見れば米軍そして韓国軍が国連旗を掲げて国連軍として行動するとなれば、1954年に国連と結んだ地位協定にしたがって米軍や韓国軍、そのほか国連の呼びかけにしたがって参戦する国々を支援することになる。この国連軍に対する支援(施設や物品の提供、兵士の居住、移動などの便宜供与などもっぱら後方支援)は個別的自衛権の発動ではない。しかし、集団的自衛権の発動なのか、あるいは集団安全保障の発動なのか。というのも朝鮮国連軍は国連軍とも言い難く限りなく多国籍軍、さらにより厳密には米韓同盟軍に近いからである。
 他方米韓相互援助条約の発動であれば、日本は韓国に出動する在日米軍の行動を日米安保条約によって支援することになるだろう。この時はじめて集団的自衛権の発動が問題となる。しかし、武力行使と一体化するような米軍の行動への支援といったあいまいな問題を除き、現在集団的自衛権で想定されているような自衛隊が紛争地域で米軍を支援する具体的な戦闘はおそらくほとんど無い。北朝鮮との戦いで米軍が日本の支援を要請するような事態が起こるとすれば、それはもはや日本の安全が危なくなる時で、個別的自衛権で対処できる。
また邦人を救援する米艦船の護衛のために集団的自衛権が必要という説明を安倍首相がしていたが、邦人保護であれば、公明党が主張するように個別的自衛権で対処できる。とはいえ、そもそも北朝鮮の海軍に、たとえ輸送艦であっても米海軍を攻撃できる能力も無いし、わざわざ対馬海峡あたりにまで出撃する能力もない。
ちなみに韓国にいる在留邦人の撤退計画の多くは陸路で釜山に集合し、そこから民間船で九州に避難することになっている。北朝鮮が民間への攻撃を禁ずる国際法を守るとの前提だが、民間船の方が米海軍艦船よりは安全である。問題は漢江の北に万一取り残されたり、空港や陸路が封鎖されて釜山まで辿りつけない場合である。韓国政府が邦人救護であれ自衛隊の韓国派兵を認めるとは思えない。万一認めたとして、自衛隊員が戦闘に巻き込まれる危険性は大きく、日本が北朝鮮との武力衝突に発展するおそれがある。
だから、取り残されたり逃げ遅れたりした邦人は、自力での脱出を最後まで試み、万策尽きた場合には潔く憲法九条に殉ずるべきである。国民がその覚悟を持たない限り、集団的自衛権行使容認の挙句、邦人保護を名目に日本は国際紛争に巻き込まれ、平和国家としてのブランドを失うことになる。それはまた、いつか来た道である。

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